"The experts on what’s next

NEXTPERT REPORT
The leading newsletter on trends and what’s next
SPECIAL
REPORT
In this issue:
Nextpert's Mega Trends predictions for 2005
  • Nextpert's Independent Survey with DRI to rate the trends
  • Trends predictions from:
    • Irma Zandl
    • Faith Popcorn
    • Iconoculture
  • Experiential Luxury - Pam Danziger
  • Notes from Malcolm Gladwell, Trendwatching.com, Fast Company
  • About Us
Executive Editor/Executive Producer David Post david@nextpert.com
Editor-in-Chief/On Air Nextpert Katlean de Monchy kdm@nextpert.com
Nextpert News * Empire State Building * 350 Fifth Avenue * Suite 5600 * New York, NY 10118
Tel: (212) 229-1234 Fax: 212 229-1002

NEXTPERT'S MEGA TRENDS

NEXTPERT REPORT ON TRENDS

Why trends?
Trends will affect and reflect consumer behavior - trends can impact what products and service companies produce and how they market because being on-trend is an intelligent approach while the adventuresome bleeding edge trend maker will have the larger reward along with the bigger risk.

Our criteria
Trends predictions come from ideas posed by our in-house futurist David Post, from predictions from members of our trends network who include individuals and groups who have launched new trends via breakthrough products, observations of cultural odd behavior that we monitor, and watching well-known out-of-the-box trend makers.

Next, as a sanity check, we connect with world-class trend experts to hear their predictions.

Then we present some of our trend forecasts to research surveys to see if a cross section of America agrees and in what order of importance they put each trend.

And of course there's the wild card, - a disruption, major world event, a catastrophe (i.e. 9/11) changes everything. Or a major event that disrupts the status quo within the business world - think Sears-K-Mart merger.

We will be updating this report during the final weeks of 2004 and throughout 2005.

Here are NEXTPERT'S MEGA-TRENDS for 2005. We apologize to all trends we left off the list.

SMART PRODUCTS - we coined this term about 18 months ago to reflect a strong focus by smart companies to create products for today's mindset and lifestyle. What are some definitions of smart products - a product that is like us, it multitasks - a product that is as advanced as it is easy to use - a product that makes life easier, a product that eliminates one big hassle or annoyance (think what search was like before Google) a product that clearly advances the art. Smart Phones is a perfect example - another is clothing with nanotechnology, which repels stains and is wrinkle free (Nanotechnology is hitting the golf course - golf balls and clubs, in center court - in tennis rackets, - maybe asterisks in record books * Before Nanotech) . Look for many more smart products in the coming year. Being smart is not just saying you're smart - consumers are too savvy and less trusting these days.

SMART KIDS - helping kids be smarter is a passion of the rich and the poor. We have observed teaching methods like Kumon, gaining wide popularity with parents of all budgets to help their kids excel in math and reading, and a new theme park just opened at Sawgrass Mills in Fort Lauderdale allows kids to play act in a "city" and be what they want to be like - a Mayor, Police Chief, Doctor, TV reporter. It's called Wannado City- and if the kids' passion is shopping then the world's largest outlet mall is right next door.

And a prediction - that someone will get the stroke of genius to develop methods that allow all people, kids and adults to discover their special talents and natural abilities.

BYE BYE ANALOG - HELLO DIGITAL - The Digital Lifestyle is here and impacting every aspect of our lives. The next frontier is the realization of the digital home inspired by the cartoon series The Jetsons. Digital cell phones, then cameras, then cell phones with cameras and cell phones with video cameras (millions of instant journalists), now our home consumer electronics are becoming digital, and technology producers and carriers are waging war or collaborating to control the digital gateway, the digital remote - and the digital tollbooth.

LIFE INSTANTLY - TIME COMPRESSION - MULTI-TASKING
"How are you?" "Busy". When we first discussed this, it was a more an anomaly - now it is part of our lives. We live in the HOV lane and maybe it's counterproductive, maybe it's unhealthy and stressful, but people work longer hours, sleep less, spend less time cooking and eating (and when they eat they're also doing something else). People are doing things at the last minute because that's when it becomes urgent so online travel done at the last minute, online dating, IM, Sidekicks and Blackberries for communications, have been among the beneficiaries of time compression. Services are just beginning to surface to make the time compressed life easier (and yes, faster)

PARDON THE PLUG -Our foray into entertainment for the world of time compressed has begun with the announcement of "two minute television shows" that will play on the news, morning shows, entertainment programs, online video streamed on the web and onto cell phones. The first series is called "Genius On A Shoestring" a primetime-like two-minute reality TV 26 week series. Imagine primetime can be anytime and anyplace.

TV of the Future will not just be on TV - look for more video entertainment on the web and on cell phones and other portable devices.

LIBRA EFFECT - the counter trend to Time Compression. We coined this trend about 18 months ago and it is more significant now than ever. As our lives become more compressed and demanding, as we are multitasking more than ever and juggling career and family and other obligations there is the growing necessity for "my time" a chance to gain balance to our lives. Yoga and meditation are just the beginning. As people look for ways to chill out, and smart entrepreneurs are there to create and provide new ways to get a 30-minute vacation - even a five-minute one - everyone wins.

24 HOUR EVERYTHING - In Tokyo - the "C" store is a trendwatcher's destination, and a place for anyone who needs something now. 7-Eleven has started to cash in on this desire for 24 Hour Everything and as ATMs changed banking and Internet has changed shopping, other 24-hour opportunities are coming. Stores will be thinking - "when we're closed where are our customers going?"
plus VIRTUAL EVERYTHING and REALITY EVERYTHING

AMERICA UNPLUGGED - the wireless revolution continues to permeate our lives. More Centrino wireless laptops (we introduced it here), cell phones that are really computers and can perform increasing amounts of business and fun tasks (look for TV coming to a cell phone near you). Will the wall socket be a dying breed replaced by long life battery powered portable devices? OK you'll still need a battery charger. (Wireless' baby brother RFID is coming to retailing, drug monitoring, airports, maybe people?)

LET'S GET PERSONAL - PERSONALIZATION - CUSTOMIZATION
iPod is a perfect example of Personalization - it's about ME. From Nike ID to the trend called (by Trendwatching.com) Customer-Made the collaboration of supplier and customer is working. Companies that have succeeded handsomely in the marketplace have strong communities with their customers - Mini-Cooper, Nike, iPod. . Personal Style is a trend to watch. Individuals are individualistic thus one size does not fit all.

THE CREATIVE CLASS - think Andy Warhol redux. Celebrating creativity and individualism. 'Bout time. We look for a boom in creativity and new age of expression in all sectors, not just the arts, and it will also monetize. The new elite will be those whose creativity changed, improved or touched our lives.

SMALL BUSINESS - and SMALL BUSINESS BOOMERS - we mentioned this strength among sectors of small business several years ago including work-at-home moms and Mr. Moms; family, weekend and eBay businesses; and Baby Boomers starting new careers on their own as their corporate and industrial lives ebbed and they didn't want to or couldn't retire. The President's open support of small business didn't hurt on November 2. Look for continued growth and more recognition - TV shows even a TV network - and major opportunities for brilliant ideas on how small businesses can create networks to help each other (like co-ops and referral systems) how small businesses can be perfect outsourcers for budget-conscious giants and new ingenious and needed ideas that will develop into big franchises of small players.

PONCE AND CINDY- Today's Icons - Not Brittney and Madonna - it's PONCE DE LEON and CINDERELLA. Just about everyone is following the voyage of Ponce de Leon to discover the Fountain of Youth and surgeons, dermatologists, and TV producers are cashing in. We've even heard about "voice lifts", a procedure to make baby boomers voices sound younger. Cinderella is our term for the shorter term, less invasive measures that have a similar impact. Look for more products to play to this sleeping giant of a market.

ROMANCE IS BACK - It's on the runways and in TV commercials but it is also in our lifestyles. While we live time compressed lives, romance still has a place and creates a different type of excitement with a different pace. It is like the Libra Effect (which is personal) a counter trend to the Life Instantly trend.

AND LUXURY FOR ALL - SMALL INDULGENCES - After our tough times in America, many of us looked for comfort and a new age of affordable luxury was born. This trend has continued and will be apparent in Holiday shopping because luxury does not only mean expensive.

WHAT DOES THE CONSUMER HAVE TO SAY -In our recent (but still ongoing) Digital Research Pop Poll the top 4 trends recognized were:

- Fountain of Youth
- Smart Products
- Wireless
- 24 Hour Everything

When asked to rate, which will continue, the results were:

- Smart
- Wireless
- 24 Hour Everything
- Time Compression

When asked which trends have you embraced in your life - the results were:

- Smart
- Wireless
- 24 Hour Everything
- Personalization
(Note - Digital Lifestyle and Smart Kids were not included in the survey)

TREND NOTES:
COMMERCIAL BLUR - with TV commercials yielding weaker results, the challenge of major advertisers will be to find their way into content and develop methods of promotion - not just product placement to get their USPs out to their prospective customer.

GEN Y - Tribes versus 15 Minutes of Fame. The culture of Gen Y has been team play but we're betting that individualism will emerge for echo-boomers.

Let's discuss what do these trends all mean? How do these trends affect your brand? How might you create your own trend or might your breakthrough product trigger a new trend? Contact david@nextpert.com.

WHAT WORLD CLASS TRENDS EXPERTS ARE PREDICTING:
David Post attended the annual Future Trends Conference in South Beach in November 2004. Here are some of the ideas offered up by some of the most respected names in trends research:

IRMA ZANDL - Considered one of the top trend researchers in the industry, an expert in youth consumers talked about approaches to a target market like the youth market

  • Consumer Centric - being immersed in their lives - crib chats - seeing the world through their eyes such as going to a youth oriented movie at the 11pm show when they're there - look for incremental improvements (like Amazon)
  • Sometimes it pays to Think Small - brand evangelists - like Jet Blue "I love this product" - beyond mass - word of mouth - limited run makes it exclusive
  • Keep Your Edge - stay fresh - like MTV has done - Pop Up Stores creates sense of urgency - stay on trend (Apple vs. Kodak) curiosity keeps you cool
  • Sell Style Flat Screen TV, iPod, - tech has raised the bar - design democracy (Ikea) Aspirational ("W"hotels) -Massclusivity H&M) co-branding
  • Stay tapped to Pop Culture - celebs are trendsetters - pop culture is the common denominator
  • Trade Them Up - higher quality (Whole Foods) Small Indulgences - Once you get used to better you stay with it - expectations are rising
  • Functionally Relevant - can't just be cool - young people love infomercials! - Before and After
  • Remember they're Free Agents - empowered by technology - Tech puts them in the driver's seat - more niche brands (LG), changing brand loyalty - what is best NOW
  • Advertising drives people to websites - website entertainment
  • Brand Personality - stand for something have a live relationship with customer - get out of the commodity trap
  • See the Future - trends give you big ideas - trends have long life (Hip Hop) - don't confuse trend with trendy

POPCORN REPORT

  • Chicks in Charge - post-feminist, right hand rings- tricked out cars- dynamics of household - wives making more than husbands - more women not ever getting married --buying own homes - Kill Bill - MTV Road Rules - Motorcycle chicks
  • Cholo Culture - #1 Ethnic culture crossing over to mainstream- Telemundo spin-off young hip urban - fresh approach taking over for hip-hop (hip hop gentrified)
  • Heartland Value - Christian Values - a faith based Administration - 1/3 Born Again - Pro-Family - DaVinci Code- Joan of Arcada - Patriotism (Obvious if you saw the Veteran's Day Parade in NYC and saw louder cheering than in recent times) - Center is the New Edge
  • Yo-Cos - Young Cosmopolitans - the gross national cool -
  • Playcation - metronaps in Empire State Bldg (20 minute power nap) - short format media (Editors note - Hurray!) - speed dating - my time can be 5-6 minutes
  • Icon Toppling - consumer dissed trust - consumer in control

ICONOCULTURE

  • En Vogue - craving for cool - cool is king - Generation "S" - S Girls (spoiled) - fresh fruit cocktails - Motorola MPX
  • Urban Empty Nesters - moving downtown - craving new energy
  • Control Freak - take charge of your life - control things from cell phones - control my workplace - protecting my kids
  • Brave New Man - authenticity - identity - freedom - brave new dads and the daddy diaper bags - Spike TV - Cuts for Men (like Curves)
  • Multitasking is Epidemic - younger people love it - hyperlife- connectivity 24/7 convenience - MP3 glasses from Oakley
  • Pan culture more brown and beige than black and white - all-inclusive - all ethnicities

OTHERS
SPECIAL - Trend: Materialism wanes, as consumers crave new experiences
Unity Marketing's research among luxury consumers (top 25 percent of U.S. households with incomes $75,000 and above) has shown that experiential luxuries provide the ultimate luxury satisfaction, more so than home luxuries or personal luxuries like clothes, cars or jewelry. After a little reflection it may not appear so revolutionary that today's luxury consumer market has gone experiential. After all the luxury consumers are blessed with high incomes and the ability to buy just about anything their hearts desire. For these highly affluent luxury consumers, who live in well furnished houses, have closets full of clothes and drive fairly new cars, material things are easy to acquire and don't demand a lot of sacrifice. It just makes sense intuitively that the luxury consumers derive their greatest feeling of luxury satisfaction from experiences.
Assuming this logic holds, that for the affluent the ready availability of material things makes them value things less and experiences more, then it also intuitively makes sense that people who have less material wealth would tend to find greater happiness in acquiring material possessions rather than experiences. But that isn't the case. Consumers at every income level, every age range, across the board, favor luxury experiences over home or personal luxuries.
Examples of Experiential Luxury are: Luxury travel, fine dining, tickets to a concert, spa and beauty services, cosmetic surgery. Luxury services like house cleaning, landscaping, and party planning. Look for Pam Danziger's new book: Let Them Eat Cake: Marketing Luxury to the Masses

TRENDWATCHING.COM - a sampling

  • Customer-made (see notes above)
  • Generation C - "C" is for Content - consumer generated content
  • No-Frills Chic - think Lagerfeld - H&M collaboration - Indigo Hotels
  • Life Caching - Consumers collecting, storing, and displaying their entire lives to personal use, for friends, for family and even for the entire world to peruse
  • Pop Up Retail

FAST COMPANY Fast Forward:

  • We form judgments in seconds - can we slow down the moment?
  • Dress Up is returning to the workplace
  • Pop-Up Retail
  • Video Games for Adults - especially women
  • Low Carb is ebbing - balanced diet returns - No Bad foods just bad times to eat them - Chris Carmichael new health guru.
  • Managing Energy not just managing time - what pro athletes do
MALCOLM GLADWELL - who tipped our minds with Tipping Point, has a new book with a new theory coming out in January 2005 - called BLINK
From the Gladwell.com website - It's a book about rapid cognition, about the kind of thinking that happens in a blink of an eye. When you meet someone for the first time, or walk into a house you are thinking of buying, or read the first few sentences of a book, your mind takes about two seconds to jump to a series of conclusions. Well, "Blink" is a book about those two seconds, because I think those instant conclusions that we reach are really powerful and really important and, occasionally, really good.
ABOUT US
Nextpert News is TV's leading resource on the new and the next. We host what's next segments on TV news every week across the U.S. and all our segments are also video-streamed on 114 TV station websites.
In addition, our Editor-in-Chief Katlean de Monchy appears on national shows including Good Morning America, Fox and Friends, The View, Daily Buzz, ABC News Now's Ahead of the Curve and Moneyscope, and other shows on a regular basis
Nextpert has also created Scoop in partnership with NASDAQ (with a similar arrangement at the NYSE) as the most important new platform to launch products and get wide distribution via live TV interviews.
Our sister company TWO MINUTE TELEVISION NETWORK has created, produced and is now distributing the first-ever two minute television shows. Imagine a primetime TV show compressed into two minutes and available on TV news, on the web, and on cellphones. The first series is called "Genius On A Shoestring" where two teams of street savvy marketers compete for the ultimate prize - their own company.
Four other series, all primetime themes are in development.

For more information: Contact David Post, Executive Editor, (212) 229-1234 david@nextpert.com

Want more information on Nextpert Nation – the online community for trendspotting or you would like to be a “citizen” of Nextpert Nation – please email david@nextpert.com

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NEXTPERT NEWS NETWORK is a leading authority and media resource on what's next. Nextpert News was founded by on-air TV personality Katlean de Monchy, paging and cellular pioneer David Post, and ad/branding legend Jay Chiat. It is a network of trends experts, trends correspondents, magazine editors and trend researchers across industries and around the globe.

Media outlets interested in interviewing our principals, or developing an ongoing Nextpert segment or column should contact Executive Editor David Post at (212)-229-1234 or email david@nextpert.com
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